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Natural Gas on MCX settled up 1.86% at 191.60 gained in the line of expectation prices rallied on Thursday following a larger than expected draw in inventories. Colder than expected weather is forecast to cover most of the US for the next 2-weeks.
The cold weather pattern is moving down from Canada into the mid-west of the US and appears to be stable for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. The decline in storage level projects a declining trajectory of inventories.
The DOE reported that working gas in storage was 1,705 Bcf as of Friday, February 15, 2019. This represents a net decrease of 177 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations where for a 150 Bcf decline according to Estimize and a 168 Bcf decline according to Bloomberg.
The EIA reports that natural gas inventories were 73 Bcf less than last year at this time and 362 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,067 Bcf. At 1,705 Bcf, the total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Conditions will warm across the Ohio Valley, and Northeast the next few days with highs into the 40s and 50s but also with rain and snow along a frontal boundary between cold central US air and warming Eastern US air.
The West will be cool to cold as weather systems track through. Mild high pressure will dominate the South & Mid-Atlantic Coast Thu-Sun with highs of 60s to 80s, warmest over the Southeast. Stronger cold shots will sweep across the northern and central US late next week.
--Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.8-195.2.
--Natural gas gained boosted by forecasts for colder weather and a bigger-than-expected withdrawal from storage.
--The US EIA said utilities pulled 177 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories during the week ended Feb. 15.
--Concerns of spring-like temperatures during the second half of March, and oversupply with production slowly creeping back up near new highs.